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Wednesday, May 24, 2006

Half Full

I recently posted why the glass is half empty when it comes to our dependence upon energy from other countries and the global instability we face. Here are some reasons to be hopeful for the future.

National Debt. If the debt was such a drag on our country, then why is the economy so strong? Foreign investments in the US ensure our own stability. The more invested in the US other countries are the less likely they are to do something adverse to the health of our country. Why would you sabotage your own investment?
It also makes the economy global. In other words the impact of large events is mitigated by the globalization of the worlds economies. When one country has a downturn there's a very good chance another country is having an upswing in equal proportions.

Our Borders. The outcry to secure the borders has finally reached a plateau high enough for our government to realize they must do something. It also has brought this subject out to debate on a grand scale. The more debate there is the better the chance of a comprehensive solution being found. It may not be the perfect fix, but you can bet it'll be something noteworthy.

Energy Dependence. Here's a actually a subject that could have a very good ending. With the price of oil through the roof and the political instability in regions that supply a large part of the worlds supply there is actually good news for the future. First for the US, we get most of our oil from Canada and Mexico. Those are 2 nations that we get along with and are less impacted by political instability in the middle east. Oil is now at a price that makes it economical to get it from places that required more effort to extract. Prime example, the oil shale deposits in the US and the oil sands in Canada. These will continue to be a rich source of energy reserves available. Alternative forms of energy are becoming more and more viable. Hydrogen, biodiesel, and ethanol are some examples. Hybrid vehicles are becoming more popular which will reduce our dependence on gas and oil. The result is less exposure to the wild fluctuations in the oil markets. It's a classic case of "Necessity is the Mother of Invention".

China. China is becoming more and more progressive in it's bid to open up to the rest of the world. Our engagement of China economically has provided the catalyst to set them on the road toward change. They have revaluated their currency a few times due to pressure from the markets and have been negotiating trade policies. As this exchange continues I would expect to see China more toward a more free society. It will take time, but look at what has been accomplished just since 1970. Formal trade relations and open policy discussions. These are big steps for a communist country.

Other countries. Although there are still hostile relations with other countries and a lot of newsworthy anti-United States remarks made by countries who are feeling their oats lately, we have strengthened relations with some countries who were on the fence when it came to the US. Germany in years past had been aligned more with France in their opposition to our policies but recent elections had placed into power a pro-US Chancellor in Angela Merkel. She was freely elected based upon her pro-US stance and that says the people of Germany want better relations with the US. Also, in South America there have been several countries that are telling Venezuelan Presidente Chavez to butt-out. They claim he is interfering with their elections by trying to have candidates he supports elected. Iran is making overtures to establish a direct dialogue with the US. Could it be they are feeling the heat? It could open the door to moderating the rhetoric coming from that country which would provide stabilization in that area of the world.
So for every negative, anti-United States event that happens there are other pro-United States events that even out the playing field.

Ying and Yang in the geo-political world.

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